Scant Relief for Jobseekers in 2003, Networking or not working?By: JSS Staff
By Victoria Thieberger
NEW YORK (Reuters) - It will be close to the end of the year before U.S. companies gain the confidence to start hiring workers on a big enough scale to cut into the unemployment rate, according to a Reuters poll.
The poll on the outlook for major economies showed analysts see only a gradual improvement in the U.S. unemployment rate this year, down to 5.7 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with 6.0 in December 2002.
U.S. employers slashed jobs sharply in November and December and have little incentive to start rehiring until some of the uncertainties hanging over the economy, such as whether there is a war with Iraq, are resolved. That will take time.
The survey, carried out January 9-13, forecast the U.S. jobless rate at 6.0 percent in the first quarter of 2003 and 5.9 in the second quarter, an agonizingly slow pace of improvement.
 "The growth rate of the economy is not strong enough to push the unemployment rate lower," said Michael Moran at Daiwa Securities America. "It's not even strong enough to hold it steady."
Moran expects the jobless rate to drift up to 6.2 percent in the middle of the year and be at 6.1 percent in the December quarter.
"One thing that has to happen is some kind of resolution in Iraq, which is a major factor leading firms to be cautious. Other than that, firms need additional time to work off excess capacity they have from overinvestments in the 1990s," he said.
For the year as a whole, unemployment was forecast to average 5.8 percent.
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